BOM outlook predicts increased cyclones and wet summer ahead

WEATHER

Karlie Brady

Journalist

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The Bureau of Meteorology has released its Severe Weather Outlook for October to April.

Douglas Shire residents are urged to be prepared with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting above-average rainfall and an increased risk of flooding and cyclones in the north this wet season, after releasing its Severe Weather Outlook for October to April.

The current La Niña weather system is set to bring an earlier start to the wet season in eastern and northern Australia bringing more rain than usual, with an increased risk of widespread flooding.

The outlook also suggests a 66 per cent chance of an above average number of cyclones forming across Australia this season.

While recent decades have seen a decline in the number of tropical cyclones, Bureau climatologist, Greg Browning, says this summer is likely to buck that trend.

"On average Australia sees 9 to 11 tropical cyclones each year, with 4 crossing the coast. With La Niña this year we are expecting to see slightly more tropical cyclones than average, and the first one may arrive earlier than normal," Mr Browning said.

"Every northern wet season has had at least one tropical cyclone cross the Australian coast, so we can never be complacent. We know that cyclones can develop at any time throughout the tropical cyclone season, which runs from November to April," he said.

"This means that communities right across northern Australia need to stay be prepared now, and stay informed from the very start of the tropical cyclone season in October, right through until April."

La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean and average to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures to the north of Australia have influenced this year's tropical cyclone outlook.

In La Niña years, the first cyclone to develop across the Australian region typically occurs earlier than normal, around the middle of December. During average years, the date of the first tropical cyclone to make landfall over Australia is typically in early January.

Douglas Shire residents are warned to be prepared and keep up to date through the Douglas Dashboard.



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