Five minute guide to the Melbourne Cup
QUICK GUIDE
THE race that stops a nation is almost here. So here’s our quick guide to the Melbourne Cup courtesy of punters.com.au.
The race will begin at 2.00pm local AEST time at the famous Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne. The race is a true staying test over 3200m.
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THE RUNNERS:
1. HARTNELL (12) 57.5kg
Why he can win: He’s a seriously classy horse when right and it’s hard to forget that Turnbull Stakes win here, smashing Jameka by 3.25L in brilliant time.
Why he can’t win: Had his chance last year and wasn’t good enough. He just doesn’t seem to be going well enough at the moment.
2. ALMANDIN (14) 56.5kg
Why he can win: Won it last year and certainly hasn’t gone backwards. Strong stayer with a nice turn-of-foot, prepared by a team who knows exactly what it takes to win this race.
Why he can’t win: Makybe Diva and Think Big are the only two horses since 1970 to go back-to-back in this race – it’s no easy feat. His lead-up run was average and he’s a run short of last year’s winning Cup campaign.
3. HUMIDOR (13) 56kg
Why he can win: Simply awesome in the Cox Plate behind Winx and if he settles in the run he could blow these away with his superior turn-of-foot. He’s rock-hard fit having his 7th run for the campaign.
Why he can’t win: Can hang under pressure and has never raced beyond 2400m. If he refuses to settle early it’s pretty much curtains.
4. TIBERIAN (23) 55.5kg
Why he can win: Comes here in great form and ATB obviously saw enough in him to consider him a strong Cup chance (never a cheap investment). He's still very much on the up.
Why he can't win: Hard to line up his recent form but they certainly didn't break any records time-wise last start. He has to be some sort of query at 3200m, particularly if the tempo is strong.
5. MARMELO (16) 55kg
Why he can win: His win in the G2 Prix Kergorlay (3000m) was a great Cup trial and he certainly didn't lose any admirers with his fast-finishing 6th in the Caulfield Cup (2400m).
Why he can't win: If he's slightly slow to begin from barrier 16 he's going to end up back in the field and his best runs have come when settling midfield or better.
6. RED CARDINAL (24) 55kg
Why he can win: Purchased specifically for this race by astute buyers. Loved his Belmont Gold Cup (3219m) win two-back.
Why he can't win: Winning the Cup first-up in Australia is no easy feat and he was plain last start.
7. JOHANNES VERMEER (3) 54.5kg
Why he can win: His Caulfield Cup run was terrific without luck, following an eye-catching effort in the Caulfield Stakes. Can’t fault the way he’s settled in over here.
Why he can’t win: 3200m is a real worry. Generally the international runners come here with some sort of form at 2600m+.
8. BONDI BEACH (1) 54kg
Why he can win: Owned by Lloyd Williams…
Why he can’t win: Twice he has been well-beaten in this race when in much better form than he is at the moment.
9. MAX DYNAMITE (2) 54kg
Why he can win: Ran a cracker in this race two years ago 1st-up in Australia and Mullins has followed a similar path this time around. He’s been working well at Werribee.
Why he can’t win: Has raced just four times since the 2015 Cup and been well-beaten three times. This is a huge step up from his last start at Killarney.
10. VENTURA STORM (6) 54kg
Why he can win: Lindsay Park brought him over for this race. He was only average in the Caulfield Cup but his run in the G1 Turnbull Stakes was encouraging and he should appreciate a return to Flemington.
Why he can’t win: His Caulfield Cup run wasn’t a great Melbourne Cup trial, fading out to finish 13th.
11. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (20) 54kg
Grand old stager was scratched from the race on Sunday due to an elevated temperature.
12. WICKLOW BRAVE (8) 54kg
Why he can win: His win over Order Of St George reads incredibly well for this and his overall record beyond 2800m is sound.
Why he can’t win: Only average in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and beaten a very long way in this race last year (although he did cop an average steer from the wide gate).
13. BIG DUKE (5) 53.5kg
Why he can win: Weir factor and as tough as old boots. He can race forward or back and throughout his career he has continued to rise to the level required (BM to Listed, Listed to Group 3, etc).
Why he can’t win: Beaten by Foundry three-back which isn’t a great reference given that horse was then beaten 32.55L in the Herbert Power and 4.45L in the Bendigo Cup. Query on class.
14. US ARMY RANGER (22) 53.5kg
Why he can win: Team Williams and has the services of gun international hoop Jamie Spencer.
Why he can't win: Doesn't appear to be going well enough.
15. BOOM TIME (9) 53.5kg
Why he can win: The Caulfield Cup has always been a solid form reference for this race, particularly horses that finish in the first six
Why he can’t win: No form beyond 2500m.
16. GALLANTE (18) 53kg
Why he can win: Has a Group One win over 3200m to his name.
Why he can’t win: Poor in this race last year and hasn’t done anything in two runs since.
17. LIBRAN (7) 53kg
Why he can win: Has a Group One placing over 3200m. Ran home well at his most recent outing over 2500m, clocking the fastest final 400m/200m sectionals.
Why he can’t win: Form doesn’t look strong enough and doubt there is a great deal of improvement to come as a 7YO.
18. NAKEETA (19) 53kg
Why he can win: The Ebor form stood up well last year, with Heartbreak City getting within 0.2L off Almandin.
Why he can’t win: Form prior to the Ebor was ordinary and history tells us that it’s extremely difficult to win this race without a lead-up run in Australia.
19. SINGLE GAZE (11) 53kg
Why she can win: Her effort in the Caulfield Cup last start was arguably the run of the race.
Why she can’t win: Just can't see her running a strong two miles.
20. WALL OF FIRE (15) 53kg
Why he can win: Terrific lead-up run in the Herbert Power (2400m) and certainly open to further improvement. That effort came on the back of a super performance in the G3 Geoffrey Freer (2716m) at Newbury.
Why he can’t win: Red Cardinal beat him by over 6L in the Belmont Gold Cup (3219m) three-back and he finished a well-beaten 6th in the Dubai Gold Cup over this trip.
21. THOMAS HOBSON (21) 52kg
Why he can win: He’s a genuine stayer who comes here on the back of an encouraging run at Doncaster against some talented types.
Why he can't win: More of a grinder than a few of the other internationals. Turn-of-foot perhaps not as sharp.
22. REKINDLING (4) 51.5kg
Why he can win: His form has been terrific since stepping to 2800m+. He continues to improve and with just 51.5kg he should be hard to hold out.
Why he can't win: He's only had 9 career starts and he takes on some real seasoned stayers who have covered plenty of miles on and off the track (flying to different countries, acclimatising to different conditions etc). This race may have come around too quick for him and he could possibly be a better 2018 proposition.
23. AMELIE’S STAR (10) 51kg
Why she can win: Awesome winning the G3 Bart Cummings (2500m) two-back, sprinting clear of Almandin, Harlem and Vengeur Masque. It’s easy to forgive her Caulfield Cup effort given she was ridden upside down, chasing the tearaway leader Sir Isaac Newton.
Why she can’t win: Never raced beyond 2500m and was beaten over 5L in the Caulfield Cup last start. Unplaced in both runs at Group One level.
24. CISMONTANE (17) 50kg
Why he can win: Tough and in-form. He makes his own luck up on the pace, taking luck out of the equation.
Why he can't win: Looks a level or two below these class-wise.
THE VERDICT:
Wall Of Fire (20) was terrific in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) at his Australian debut and the form out of that race has stacked up well through Boom Time and Lord Fandango. There was plenty to like about his run in the G3 Geoffrey Freer (2716m) prior which has traditionally been a solid reference for this race. Last year's winner Almandin (2) was plain last start but utterly dominant prior to that in a truly-run race over 2500m here. The X-factor might be the lightly-raced Rekindling (22) coming off a nice performance in the G1 St Leger (2921m). With just 51.5kg he looks dangerous from the good draw. Rounding out the top four is Marmelo (5) who is coming off a real eye-catcher in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).
TIPS:
20. Wall Of Fire
2. Almandin
22. Rekindling
5. Marmelo
BEST VALUE:
15. Boom Time ($35)
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