The issue of rate rises is going to haunt Julia Leu at this election.

She cannot escape it, despite her very best efforts to do so.

Repeated calls and text messages from Newsport seeking comment and an interview with Ms Leu over the past week have been ignored, over and over again.

With less than two weeks to go until the election on March 19, that’s not good enough from the incumbent Mayor.

Running a small target strategy this campaign is one thing. But this is beyond small and it’s beyond a joke. This is more like invisibility.

Her opponent Roy Weavers won’t be able to avoid the potential trap of future rate rises either, but more on him later.

For now, the focus should be on Leu.

She is the incumbent Mayor who delivered two budgets in the wake of deamalgamation and before that she rode into power with promises of keeping rates low.

In this election however, her position on future rate rises remains a complete and utter mystery. If you see her out and about on the hustings, please ask her to call me.

Because back in 2013 Leu was more than happy to talk about rates during the push for de-amalgamation.

Along with the Friends of Douglas Shire group, voters will remember that Leu promised to keep rate rises low and roughly in line with CPI, which is now running at less than 2%.

This “low rates” promise was made in the face of exorbitant double-digit rises predicted by the Queensland Treasury Corporation.

Don’t forget that those QTC predictions were based on the council running a balanced budget and spending a healthy amount on capital works.

Leu and the Douglas Shire Council have chosen to walk an altogether different path by running large budget deficits with modest spending on capital works over the past two years.

Leu and her supporters have basked in the glow of apparent success when those very high rate rises predicted by QTC didn’t materialise in the budgets of 2014 and 2015.

But this is 2016. And right now we’re smack bang in the middle of an election that will decide the next leader of the Douglas Shire for a term of four years.

That’s a big deal. And I’m very sorry to say but it seems the proponents of de-amalgamation including Leu may have sold voters a rose-coloured, starry eyed story about rates that is now slowly unraveling.

Going forward, the council will find it increasingly difficult to find a sustainable way of funding its operational costs without big rate rises.

No matter what happens in the realm of politics, the shire’s administration arm needs to keep the lights on. It needs to keep mowing the nature strips and keep the water and sewerage system flowing. It needs to collect the rubbish, maintain local parks and facilities, and deliver a decent capital works program. Among many other functions.

So far the Douglas Shire’s revenue stream hasn’t been able to keep up with all that, and won’t do so for a number of years into the future. Hence the multi-million dollar annual deficits.

There are some basic fiscal facts in black and white that nobody can deny, not even the staunchest, most optimistic of Leu supporters.

Under the leadership of Leu, Douglas Shire Council last year signed off on rate rises of 5.2% every year for the next four years stretching out to 2020.

They also signed off on a 3.6% rise in council fees and charges over the same period. That means the cost to dump your rubbish is going up and the cost to run your business in the shire is going up. Even the cost to register your dog is going up.

When combined with rate rises, this all adds to the pressure on your household budget and the cost of living in Douglas.

Keep in mind these are budget forecasts, and are subject to change. Your rates, fees and charges could of course be lower when the next council budget is handed down in a few months time.

Unfortunately, they could also be higher, depending on a range of internal and external factors many of which are beyond the control of any council.

It is vital at this juncture of an election campaign to remember that the combined rises predicted by council were written into its own budget papers to achieve a rating of financial sustainability for the purposes of its credit rating and for it to achieve a balanced budget in 2019-20.

With all of this in mind, voters should demand that both Leu and Weavers explain their policy on rate rises over the next term of council. They should shout it from the rooftops and yell it in the streets.

This is important stuff. It impacts your household budget and influences your ability to afford the life you enjoy in the Douglas region.

Every voter should demand an answer about rate rises from the two mayoral candidates because anyone with half a brain knows you can only spend more than you earn for so long before you run into strife.

If you’re borrowing to cover operational expenses year after year after year – the way Douglas Shire Council seems happy to do - your credit rating will be impacted, which leads to higher interest costs, which starts a debt and deficit spiral that is difficult to pull out of.

Sooner or later, you have to quickly and sharply raise revenue or cut costs (or both) to cover your operating expenses.

That often means rate rises and increases to fees and charges of the type contained in the Council’s own predictions.

It also explains the type of high rate rises predicted by the QTC several years ago. Douglas Shire Council may have avoided double-digit rises in its first two years, but it can’t keep doing that forever.

At some point, something has to give. Other small councils around Australia have found this out the hard way. In 2013, the Whitsunday Council was deemed insolvent and had an administrator put in.

In the same year, a similar fate befell the Central Darling Shire council in New South Wales when it went bust and an administrator was installed to sort out the financial mess.

There are many other examples of small councils across the nation who met a similar demise over the past couple of decades.

Even under the most fortunate of economic circumstances and best case revenue scenarios, the Douglas Shire’s next elected Mayor and councillors face one hell of a tough job.

Somehow, they must conjure up a batch of economic miracles and find creative ways to avoid passing on this hit to ratepayers every year for the next term of their council. They either have to raise rates or cut services and capital works. They may even have to perform an unfortunate combination of both.

But don’t take my word for it.

Here are some thoughts from respected North Queensland economist Pete Faulkner, who runs Conus Business Consultancy Services and himself is running for mayor of the Cassowary Coast Council.

About six months ago, Faulkner wrote this about the Douglas Shire Council’s budget position:

“Some have opted to ignore the elephant in the room, which is Douglas Shire Council’s large budget deficit of about 10% in 2015/16, and instead claim that the QTC have ‘been proven wrong’.

“In fact, QTC have been proven right.

“Whilst the Douglas Shire Council grapples with the difficulty of sorting out their somewhat parlous financial state without whacking ratepayers with huge increases, it is worth reflecting that the QTC forecasts about the financial problems to be faced by de-amalgamated councils were broadly accurate.

“Anyone trying to claim otherwise is ignoring the facts.”

To his credit, Roy Weavers isn’t ignoring the facts. It’s nice to report that he also isn’t ignoring media requests for comment.

Whichever way you look at it, this election is going to go down to the wire and the issue of rate rises is shaping up to be one of the biggest issues of the campaign.

“Without any doubt, we’ll be reviewing those rate predictions of 5.2% per year plus the fees and charges, and I’ll pull in a business advisory board and the best brains in the Shire to find alternative revenue streams and ensure we’re not putting the burden on individual ratepayers,” Weavers said.

“At the moment I’m afraid to say I tend to agree with Pete Faulkner’s assessment that perhaps the QTC estimates and warnings are turning out to be accurate.

“But the way this current council have put together those 5.2% increases is the lazy way of doing it. We need to introduce good management practices by looking at where we’re spending the money and where we can exploit new opportunities for revenue.

“We can’t keep putting the ratepayer under the hammer all the time.”

As a mayoral candidate, you also can’t keep ignoring serious questions about rate rises and the council’s precarious financial position.