The cold, hard truth about political campaigning is that opposition candidates don’t win elections.

Governments and incumbents lose them.

Based on that age-old truism, Roy Weavers won’t win the upcoming Douglas Shire mayoral race. His potential victory at the ballot box on March 19 will hinge on Julia Leu losing it.

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This maxim of “oppositions don’t win… incumbents lose” explains the fundamental thrust of the Weavers campaign.

Over the next few weeks, you will hear him ask the same question over and over and over again: are you happy with the way things have been going under the leadership of Leu?

If enough voters answer “no” to that question, Weavers could become the next mayor of the Douglas Shire.

But that’s a big “could”. Indeed, if there is a certain level of satisfaction or apathy or a detached acceptance of the way Leu has been running the show, well, Roy won’t win the mayoral race.

Roy could be the greatest mayoral candidate the Douglas Shire has ever known. He could deliver the most spellbinding stump speeches you’ve ever heard and produce the slickest, most engaging advertising you’ve ever seen.

He might promise the world and pledge to fix every last problem that bedevils the region, he could promise to fill every pothole, tidy up every last nature strip and bike path and introduce every last economic development strategy you could conjure up.

Hell, he could even ride a unicycle down Macrossan St while whistling Dixie and juggling a bunch of firesticks in a mesmerising display of dexterity and wonder if it meant he could secure your vote.

By the looks of him I’d say such a dazzling array of magical, unicycle riding skills is probably beyond Roy at this stage of his life but you get my point.

It doesn’t matter what amazing things Weavers does over the next few weeks. None of the above would be enough to topple an incumbent mayor. And Weavers knows it.

Over a cup of coffee at Lure Restaurant on the waterfront, Weavers tells me he had always been a supporter of Julia Leu.

In what is the polar opposite of a knockout blow to his opponent, Roy believes Julia is doing a “fair job” as Mayor.

If that comment was meant to motivate people to vote against Julia, Roy just whacked his opponent with the equivalent of a wet lettuce leaf. He’s going to have to do more than that if he wants to win on March 19, especially when you consider that just 5548 of the 7045 enrolled constituents in this region turned out to cast their vote at the 2013 Douglas election. That means roughly one in five people didn’t bother to vote at that election.

With such a low turnout rate, it will be extremely difficult for Weavers to convince enough people to change their vote.

Anecdotal evidence suggests to me that Weavers can’t rely on outright anger and widespread dissatisfaction with Julia’s performance to get across the line.

Instead he appears to be banking on unrest and disquiet over the administration style of the current council, in particular the actions of the CEO Linda Cardew.

As a flow-on effect of the CEO’s performance, Roy will keep raising the spectre of Leu’s failure to lead and consult with both her councilors and the community. The latest saga involving the Old Mowbray Bridge is a perfect case study in this regard.

Roy also believes the general lack of action on a range of fronts by this council - both the executive and the elected mayor - will be enough to swing votes his way.

He needs about 9% of the vote to change from the 2013 election to win office. It’s a tall ask in anyone’s political playbook.

On the flipside, Leu’s avoidance of media commentary about her re-election chances so far in this campaign also adheres to the aforementioned adage of election winners and losers.

Repeated requests for an interview with Newsport have fallen on the mayor’s deaf ears.

It’s understandable from a tactical point of view. Leu is deliberately running a small-target strategy. It may be a little frustrating for journalists and disappointing for voters but her reasoning is simple: The more Leu talks, the more chances there are for her to stuff up and “lose” the election.

Former heavyweight fighter Frank Bruno once said that “boxing is the toughest and loneliest sport in the world”.

We all know politics is a lot like boxing and we know election campaigns are tough, lonely affairs. Only your immediate family and inner circle of confidantes knows just how tough and lonely it can be.

And Julia Leu has been at the top long enough to know how Frank Bruno feels. Roy Weavers is about to find out.

This is going to be a fascinating few weeks and the result could go down to the wire.

Considering that the Douglas Shire is at an economic crossroads with scant clarity and vision for its future direction, this mayoral race is shaping up to be one of the most important for the Douglas shire in living memory.

Strap yourselves in and get involved in the debate. It’s going to be an interesting and important roller-coaster ride ahead.