“Realistically there’s a much greater chance that it will up being further north of the predicted track than further south, there’s a very low probability that it will turn south,” Ms Duncanson said. 

BoM is also revising its predictions for rainfall in Douglas Shire, given that TC Nathan is a ‘tightly wrapped’ system and will dump most of its rainfall closer to the cyclone core. 

“Right now we aren’t looking at heavy amounts of rainfall in Port Douglas or Mossman - there will still be some big falls in Cape Tribulation but nothing like the system will produce further north around Cooktown, because it’s a fairly tightly wound cyclone and it should keep most of its rain fairly close.”