Another La Niña weather pattern is forecast for this wet season, however the Bureau of Meteorology’s early tips suggest this year’s cyclone season won’t be as bad as the infamous 2010-2011.

Alan Dean, weather observer from the BOM’s Cairns office, says cooler sea temperatures and a drier-than-average dry season to date (compared to last year) points to a “weakish” La Niña system influencing our weather patterns for the 2011/2012 wet season.

Mr Dean said only 14mm of rainfall had fallen so far this month (up until Monday), while September 2010 saw 91.8mm of rain fall in the Cairns region, well above the 33.7mm September average.

Even though this month’s figures are coupled with a dry August - just 9.6mm compared to last year’s August figure of 62.6mm – Mr Dean said the lower rainfall figures didn’t necessarily mean a drier wet season.

However, he said cooler sea temperatures were encouraging, with current Coral Sea temperatures at Norman Reef showing a mild 24 degrees Celsius, four degrees cooler than the same time last year.

And while forecasters are still doing tests on outlooks for the 2011/2012 cyclone season, Mr Dean said the figures recorded to date suggest a more normalised cyclone season.

“We won’t get anything like cyclone Yasi this year, that was a huge system influenced by a constant 28 degree sea temperature,” he said.

“At this stage it looks like we may have a few smaller cyclones come through, but the test will be in the coming month to see if the sea temperature rises.”