The Great Barrier Reef may escape the extreme weather of last summer, but climate models are still leaning toward above average cyclone activity in Queensland over the coming months.

The announcement by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) came as scientists and marine managers converged on North Queensland last week to discuss the summer ahead, according to their website.

GBRMPA Climate Change Director, Paul Marshall, said the forecast for how the reef would fare over summer was based on the best available science and predictions by the Bureau of Meteorology.

"The long-term forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology is promising, but we're still seeing the effects from last summer," he said.

"High sea surface temperatures, cyclones and floods are all associated with the Queensland summer, and pose a threat to the Great Barrier Reef's health.

”We're hopeful that less extreme weather over this summer assists the reef in this recovery.”

Dr Marshall said scientists and marine managers discussed what they learned after last summer, and reviewed the forecast for this summer's conditions to develop a risk assessment and prepare for any weather-related impacts.

"Of particular interest is how simultaneous impacts affect the Great Barrier Reef in the short-term, and the consequences of cumulative impacts for the longer-term outlook for the reef," he said.

Dr Claire Spillman from the Bureau of Meteorology said ocean forecasts for the coming summer indicated relatively normal water temperatures over the reef, with conditions that could lead to coral bleaching unlikely.

"The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal climate outlook is considerably more favourable than last year, and while there will be associated rainfall and flooding, this is unlikely to be as severe or widespread," she said.

"During a La Niña, there are warmer waters in the western Pacific and regions to the north of Australia, and associated changes in circulation help focus tropical cyclone activity in the Coral and Timor seas, with slightly above average tropical cyclone activity predicted for the coming wet season.”

The annual workshop by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority helps to identify what reef health monitoring programs and activities should be undertaken and the most appropriate locations.

In the lead up to summer, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority is preparing for any weather-related impacts by consulting experts, training marine park rangers and reef users in detection and monitoring of reef health and updating the Authority's Coral Bleaching Response Plan.

The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority works with a range of industries on ways they can modify their business practices and operations so they can better deal with a changing climate. 

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