Monday 14 March 2011

by Mat Churchill

Without any doubt, Port Douglas and our region as a whole was extremely lucky that the category five tropical cyclone Yasi, predicted to be one of the biggest storms ever to hit Queensland, tracked south in the hours before it reached landfall.

But human nature dictated that, despite the media coverage of devastation in places like Cardwell, Tully and Innisfail in the days and weeks to come, it didn't take long for us to return to our daily lives almost oblivious to the danger we had diverted, or which had diverted us.

But what would have happened if the predicted 300km/h winds and metres of storm surge had have hit Port Douglas head on, as was looking highly likely even up until the day before the event?

The question of evacuation was one of the most talked about topics in the lead up. Where were people to go if and when the call came to leave our homes?

Mossman's evacuation centre at the sports complex was reportedly home to around 250 people, and by all accounts few more could have found room. The Newsport was told of a power blackout, and the lack of generator at the centre meant people endured many hours in stifling conditions.

But the issue of comfort is secondary. The issue surely is where would the thousands of other residents of Mossman, Port Douglas, Cooya, Wonga, and other populated areas in the region go if the worst of the category five cyclone hit us?

It's easy to forget the apprehension we all felt prior to Yasi's arrival. Now that it has been and gone, what's even easier to forget is to ask the question: Am I any wiser about what to do when the next cyclone comes?

Here's a hypothetical situation for you to consider.

We get wind of another category five tropical cyclone (let's call it 'Roy' after my editor) which is due to reach us in two days time. The Bureau of Meteorology can't predict with total accuracy where the storm will track but it's likely Port Douglas will encounter extreme weather conditions (much like Yasi).

Storm surges of three metres are predicted, but because of the uncertainty about where the storm will finally hit land, and the price of plane tickets out of Cairns has skyrocketed, the time comes quickly where you have been advised that the window of opportunity to leave has closed.

This time 'Roy' doesn't track south like Yasi did, and Port Douglas and Mossman feel the full brunt of the winds which destroys building with a cyclone rating of less than four, and the storm surge which floods all low lying areas.

With a regional population in the thousands, and an evacuation centre which holds 300 at best, what happens to everyone else?

This story isn't out of the realms of possibility. It was only through category five luck that we didn't experience it a few weeks ago. We were told that this year would be one of the most active for cyclones ever.

So the question remains. Are you any wiser about what to do when the next cyclone comes?

If not, surely the question of how disasters are managed and their affects minimised in our region needs to be asked of authorities as it's just a matter of time before there is a next time.